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Dollar is following its heart. Forecast as of 06.11.2020

Dollar is following its heart. Forecast as of 06.11.2020

Weekly US dollar fundamental analysis

Markets are just like people. They follow their hearts from time to time and forget about common sense. Investors like the idea of the division in the Congress and the Democratic president. In this scenario, the risks of tax hikes and high tech companies' strict regulation are much lower. This fact supports the stock indexes. The S&P 500 has been up by 1% and more during four consecutive trading sessions, which has been for the first time since 1982. In percentage terms, those days have been the best since early April. Markets consider Joe Biden to be a better president than Donald Trump, which allowed the yuan to gain back more than 50% of the losses faced during trade wars. The EURUSD tested the resistance at 1.186-1.187.
The growing chance of Biden’s victory encourages investors to spend the cash, which they have been accumulating ahead of the US presidential election. They are buying stocks and bonds. However, traders forget about other factors, such as the pandemic, uncertainty around the new fiscal stimulus, and Donald Trump’s willingness to reject the voting results. It looks like an attempt to give out desirable for valid. According to TD securities, there should not be any concerns about challenging the voting results, which has pushed the risky assets up and weakened the US dollar. DZ Bank believes that the greenback is falling because the voting results were reported earlier than some had expected. I do not think the above arguments to be strong.
I suppose traders are following their hearts. They invest the capitals in the securities as they worry not to miss the uptrend, which sends the S&P 500 up, fuels global risk appetite, and weakens the US dollar against a basket of currencies.

Dynamics of world's currencies versus the US dollar


Source: Financial Times
How long can it be going on? It depends. People in love are passionate during different periods. However, common sense should win sooner or later. The USA performs better than the euro area at the current stage of the economic cycle. The Fed is not willing to boost the monetary stimulus while the ECB tends to increase the current QE pace. According to Bloomberg’s leading indicators, the largest euro-area economies face a deeper drawdown in the PMIs because of the new lockdowns. The euro-area bond yields fall, which signals that the markets expect the ECB to take active measures in December.

Recovery of the world’s economies


Source: Bloomberg

Yields on the euro-area bonds


Source: Wall Street Journal

Weekly EURUSD trading plan

Let us be sensible during times of euphoria. Although the EURUSD has rebounded from the resistance at 1.186, the shorts entered in the zone seem vulnerable. It will be relevant to hold down the shorts if the pair goes below the support at 1.179. The S&P 500 rally could push the euro up above $1.188. The EURUSD medium-term outlook depends on whether the bulls can hold the price above 1.188.
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Daily Market Overview 10 August 2018

Daily Market Overview 10 August 2018
USA
The S&P 500 grew, supporting profit among industrial and technology firms, as investors looked ahead to a busy week for economic data. Shares opened the trading day at its highs and soon left the site, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to keep profit during the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 58 points, or 0.2%, to 25,857 after it recorded its biggest weekly decline since mid-August. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.3%.
Oil
Oil prices in the US erased early profits and published the fourth decline session, with investors continuing to weigh the wave of supply signals. Light, sweet oil for October delivery closed 21 cents, or 0.3%, at 67.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, dropping its worst week in almost two months. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 54 cents, or 0.7%, to 77.37 dollars a barrel.
Forex Trading
The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, as reports indicate that both sides are making progress in the negotiations in order to work out a US exit from the European Union. The index of the dollar WSJ, which measures the US currency against a basket of 16 others, fell for the third time in four trading sessions, down 0.1% to 89.86. The dollar fell 0.9% against the pound to 1.3015 and 0.3% against the euro to 1.1594. The EU's chief negotiator in Brexit stated that it is possible that both sides "can count on reaching Brexit's agreement within the next six to eight weeks," says a statement by the British Embassy in Slovenia posted on Twitter.
Europe
The decline in the dollar was modest, as a number of other issues remain unresolved due to unrest in emerging-market governments such as Turkey and Argentina, tariff disputes between the US and its major trading partners. "We seem to be in retention," said Mr. Nelson. "There are a lot of basic problems that have yet to be solved."
Asia
Elsewhere, the new week did not start a new trend for Asian stocks. Sales were transported with a decrease of at least 1% in Hong Kong, China, India, and Taiwan. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, and Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.3%, 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. The amount of Nikkei in Japan increased by 0.3%.
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